Reality? How Fast Can I Run

Tuesday- off tired legs!
Wednesday- 10.25miles- 1:19- hilly roads
Thursday- 11miles- 1:30- treadmill easy

Well as my opportunity to run a regulation road marathon draws closer I have begun to really wonder what I can do. It looks like the weather will be good, and the course although with a couple hills is more than fair.

Once again the gap between the athlete I once was (and still think I am) and my present shape is glaring at me. Since coming back from Egypt I really have not done the tempo or track workouts and have lost touch with what kind of shape I am in. The marathon distance itself should not be bad as I have done 4 long runs of 5-14 hours in the last 2 months, but all of these were on trails. I did put in a solid 25 miler on the roads 2 weeks ago but the 3:28 it took to run that did not include multiple stops for aid and to wait for the training group.

On Wednesday's run I ran a 6:49 mile on the only measured and flat stretch of the run with an effort I would judge to be something I could hold for 90+ minutes, but man you never know. Looking back I have rarely run a serious road marathon without a dramatic slowdown in the last 10k. The few I managed to run consistently in were negative split efforts. Lets hope I can pull off one of those on Sunday.

So for inspiration and a little bit of the "why the hell am I not faster" factor....check out Amy. This is the type of person I hope to start working with again in the next two weeks when I begin doing Physical therapy (again) and prosthetic (for the first time) work.

So what will I run??? My PR is the 2:54 I ran in 1997 in my debut at the distance (with 1:18 and 2:02 splits for 1/2 and 20 miles en route). My latest marathons were in April of 2006 when I ran 3:34 at the Charlottesville marathon one week after a 9 hour 50 miler and then ran 3:28 at Frederick. two weeks later. These were followed up by a year long deployment where I ran 3,000 miles around a one mile square base in the Sinai desert. So it should be interesting to see where I am now.

I ran a 1:28 half marathon in the beginning of the year which would indicate the capability of a 3:05 marathon according to Jack Daniel's physiological fitness calculator. Then in May I ran an 11:21 2 mile time trial which would equate to a 2:54. June 25th I ran a 10K tempo run on the track in Arlington in 40:49 and August 23rd I ran a 5k tempo in 19:45 which both give you a 3:08, Finally In September I ran a 4 mile cut down run in 26:08 which would indicate a 3:11. So I would guess I would be anywhere between 2:50 and 3:15 shape!

I probably can't break 3 hours which honestly ticks me off!